Balancing Information Analysis and Decision Value: a Model to Exploit the Decision Process

Stephen Russell Naval Research Laboratory 4555 Overlook Ave, S.W. Washington, DC 20375, USA In a time of competing and constrained resources the value of intelligence analysis to decision value is an elusive factor to quantify. This issue is confounded by ever-increasing initiatives to increase information sources and automate the decision workflow. In order to effectively evaluate possible changes to information analysis and related decision workflows, it is critically important to characterize key features of the decision process. This paper presents a theoretical Commander's decision problem: "Should I attack and where?" In the context of this problem a model, based on a simplified time dilation optimization methodology, is developed to examine the effects of intelligence analysis strategies on the decision workflow and process. The model is evaluated using several initial assumption cases and the implications of are discussed.